Black Sea Deal Back in Play?

Grain exports are back in (the) Black… Sea—maybe. 

Renewed talks between the U.S. and Russia could revive the old Black Sea Grain Initiative. Reviving the deal is a part of recent negotiations for a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. 

Rollback: The original deal was signed in the summer of 2022 after a five-month blockade inhibited Ukraine’s ability to export grain, following Russia’s invasion of the country’s eastern border. 

Russia pulled out of the deal in 2023 after claiming its demands were never met. Now, possible concessions on sanctions against Russia could reopen the corridor. 

But is the U.S. getting any bang for its buck? 

The rundown: The Kremlin said it would agree to a new deal if the U.S. lifts some sanctions on financial institutions that have challenged Russia’s banking sector. In exchange, Russia would help bring more grain to the global marketplace and help food security. 

The catch is that grain never stopped leaving the Black Sea since Russia exited the deal two years ago. Russia exported a record amount of grain in the 2023-24 season. 

Restrictions on banks still challenged export logistics, and a newly signed deal would only “formalize the status quo.” 

Zoom out: The ultimate goal of the U.S. engaging with Russia is to end the three-year war in Ukraine. Working toward a fresh deal with Russia could mean one step closer to a potential ceasefire.