Harvesting Uncertainty: Trump’s Deportation Plans Startle Ag Industry

It’s no secret much of U.S. agriculture depends on foreign farm workers.

President-elect Donald Trump may change that dependency.

Day 1 of his presidency: This week, Trump announced he would declare a national emergency and use military force for mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. He said he’s, quote, “launching the largest deportation program in American history to get the criminals out.“

Breaking the bank: But deportations would have broad economic impacts, including on the ag industry. Agricultural output is expected to fall between $30B and 60B if his policy is carried out and could cost the U.S. $315B, according to the American Business Immigration Coalition. The USDA indicates nearly half of the hired hands on farms lack legal immigration status. The state with the highest amount of undocumented workers is California, where orchards abound.

H-2A implications: While the H-2A program legally brings in around 300K workers per year, that would need to be “more than tripled” to make up for the loss. Milk producers are also concerned about losing foreign help because the milk industry doesn’t qualify for the H-2A program—but 51% of the workers at dairy operations are immigrants.

Additional challenges: This, on top of a labor shortage already happening in agriculture, plus tariff threats, doesn’t equal a great outcome for the industry. Deporting millions of farmworkers will have impacts that trickle down to consumers in higher food prices and/or supply chain issues.