Tariffs, Tariffs, and More Tariffs

Scary, but true: Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins just admitted the USDA doesn’t really know how farmers will be impacted by Trump’s latest tariffs. 

Soundbite: “In fact, it may be months before we really know, especially in the row crops. They are being planted right now.” — Rollins

Sound off: The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) said the tariffs threaten farmers’ competitiveness and could erode market share and lead to long-term damage. The National Farmers Union (NFU) agreed, saying it puts farmers at risk during a time of economic strain.

And this: “Without meaningful support and a commitment to fair trade policies, we will lose even more family farms, weaken rural economies, and ultimately drive up costs and limit choices for customers at the grocery store.” — NFU President Rob Larew

Certain ag products will be exempt from the sweeping 10% duties and even higher reciprocal duties applied to specific trade partners. Those excluded include potash, some herbicides and pesticides, peat, lumber, lubricating oils, some energy products, and specific pharmaceuticals, including products for veterinary use.

Special note: The tariffs set to go into place April 5 and 9 don’t apply to the 25% tariffs already in place with Mexico and Canada. As we’ve covered before, the U.S. gets about 80% of its potash from Canada. Potash still qualifies as duty-free under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

The blowback: Equipment manufacturer CNH already announced it’s stopping European imports and shipments from North American plants. While the company says it’s temporary, it’s a direct result of the planned tariffs and pricing. CNH promises there won’t be impacts on production, and parts will continue to be shipped.

Across the ocean: Meanwhile, China’s finance ministry said it will impose a 34% tariff on all goods imported from the U.S. beginning April 10. This is concerning, especially since almost half of U.S. soybeans are typically exported to China. 

China has been sourcing more beans from Brazil (at a cheaper price) to decrease dependence on U.S. beans. U.S. market share for beans in China has dropped from 40% in 2016 to 21% in 2024.

Meanwhile, the overall economy is already feeling the tariff pinch, as global stocks continued to fall on Monday.