Beef Market Looking Beefy…for Now

Sep 2, 2022

The Rabobank Q3 outlook shows the global beef market will stay beefy in the third quarter, but change could be on the way. Consumer choices (that’s you) will determine what comes next.

Beef retail prices mostly stayed on the up and up, or remained the same in Q2. The Q2 prices were only slightly above Q1 but were 5 to 11% higher than year-ago levels.

The landscape: Rising inflation and slowing economies are causing a decline in consumer confidence. But supply channel movements and price points show ground beef and quick-service restaurants might get their time in the spotlight.

What’s at steakThe decline in consumer confidence is good news for trimmings demand as consumers choose lower priced cuts in the second half of 2022.

Cattle markets are still looking a-okay because of strong demand in the U.S. and seasonal conditions in places like Brazil and Australia. U.S. drought and strong demand are causing high slaughter volumes and more cullings and will impact production in the back half of 2022.

How this mooves forward: If the U.S. cow cull declines, lean trimmings could see a price upside. New Zealand and Australia could be poised to export more to the U.S., while Brazil has already filled its quota for 2022.