The USDA updated its farm income forecasts again earlier this month… and it’s not looking rosy yet.
Farm bucks dip: Net farm income for 2024 is projected at $140.7B, marking a 4.1% decrease from 2023. This was up from the previous forecast but continued to show pinched producer margins.
Crop farmers are suffering the most, with crop receipts projected to be 9.2% lower than last year. Livestock producer incomes are slightly better, as receipts are projected to be 8.4% higher than a year ago, though production costs remain high.
Production expenses are coming down (slightly) after hitting a record in 2023. Expenses are expected to be around $453B, a 1.7% decrease from last year.
Soundbite: “Some positives in today’s report include stronger cash receipts for livestock and animal products, lower fertilizer, seed, pesticide, and feed costs, and growing equity in farm operations. However, we are reminded that farm income is not one size fits all, and ERS’ report offers important data points as Congress writes the next farm bill.” — USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack
Rocky support: Direct government payments are expected to be lower this year. However, crop farmers are expected to receive assistance, after Congress included $10B of direct payments in the latest government funding bill for the next three months.
Where this is headed: While the industry landscape has been ever-changing, one constant is that farming has never been easy. Industry leaders stress that completing the farm bill will be integral to support ag and deal with industry volatility.