Signs Point to “Uh Oh” For Ag: CoBank’s 2025 Ag Outlook

Heyyyy, what is up, my guy.

Maybe not the ag economy in 2025, according to CoBank.

Ag’s crystal ball: CoBank recently released a report, “Forces that will Shape the U.S. Rural Economy,” a 30-page crystal ball that looks at trade policy impacts, margins in livestock, investments, and more for 2025.

Any way the wind blows: With so many policies impacting agriculture on the line with a new (but old?) administration coming in, experts are saying it’s not lookin’ copasetic for ag.

Soundbite: “The environment we enter in 2025 hasn’t fully defined itself yet, but many of the policies proposed by the incoming administration would likely have a negative impact on U.S. agriculture. Open access to export markets and labor availability are critically important for agricultural producers and processors. Depending on how policy plays out, those two areas could be big challenges in 2025 and beyond.” — Rob Fox, director of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange

Lookin’ at you, tariffs: Exports are YUGE for American ag producers. The U.S. exported $184B in ag products in 2023, which was already down. Now, those are at even more risk due to retaliatory tariffs from other countries. Example: The trade war with China five years ago cost U.S. ag $27B in lost ag sales.  

Migrant labor loss: Agriculture also depends on immigrant labor—and Trump has proposed mass deportations and reduced immigration. Sectors like dairy, meatpacking, and produce could see labor shortages, which would only drive up operating costs.

Not JUST coal for Christmas: On the positive side, $8B will be put toward new dairy processing investments through 2026 and the livestock sector is benefiting from low feed costs.